{"id":15253,"date":"2020-09-04T16:10:58","date_gmt":"2020-09-04T15:10:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/how-to-make-the-right-decisions-three-models-tested-and-approved-book-of-decisions-2018\/"},"modified":"2025-05-26T19:19:16","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T18:19:16","slug":"how-to-make-the-right-decisions-three-models-tested-and-approved-book-of-decisions-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/en\/how-to-make-the-right-decisions-three-models-tested-and-approved-book-of-decisions-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"How to make the right decisions? Three models tested and approved! (Book of Decisions, 2018)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-scaled.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-15088\" src=\"https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-scaled.jpg 2560w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-1612x1075.jpg 1612w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-1116x744.jpg 1116w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-806x537.jpg 806w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-558x372.jpg 558w, https:\/\/www.totem-formation.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-jeshootscom-1040157-655x437.jpg 655w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Weighing up the pros and cons, weighing up each argument, seeking external advice and expertise&#8230; it&#8217;s long and tedious. Today, we focus on three decision-making models to help you quickly set limits and objectives, and perform over the long term. <!--more--><\/p>\n<h3><strong>Say &#8220;STOP<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>A useful rule might be the &#8220;STOP&#8221; rule: formulated in 1935 by the famous American investor Gerald Loeb, it answers the question &#8220;When to sell?&#8221;. The former Wall Street broker was clear: &#8220;As soon as an investment loses 10% of its value, sell without delay! A tyrannical and simplistic rule, you say? That&#8217;s certainly why it works so well!   <\/p>\n<p>Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tsch\u00e4ppeler, authors of The <em>Book of Decisions (2018)<\/em>, add that <strong>simple rules<\/strong> \u201c(&#8230;) save you headaches and can save lives, especially when it comes to ensuring retirement while climbing a mountain peak: if we haven&#8217;t reached the summit by 2 p.m., for example, we turn back. The last time someone disregarded this law, on Mount Everest in 1996, eight people lost their lives\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Make a double loop<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>This decision model allows us to take a deeper look at what <strong>motivates<\/strong> our choices and how we <strong>make<\/strong> them. \u201cIt&#8217;s not simply a question of changing our behavior, but of questioning the reasons that led us to act the way we did. What goals and values lie behind our behavior?\u201d ask Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tsch\u00e4ppeler. <\/p>\n<p>This model is based on the idea of observing the facts a second time from a new angle. Change your angle and learn from your mistakes, or better still: apply the <strong>lessons you&#8217;ve already learned<\/strong>! Taking the time to re-evaluate and re-observe a situation or a decision means finding similarities with other situations from the past, questioning the models we follow, and therefore <strong>moving forward<\/strong>. Remember the dialogue between Queen Cleopatra and the architect Amonbofis in the film Asterix Mission Cleopatra:  <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;Amonbofils! We need to change the crocodiles&#8217; water it&#8217;s an infection.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>\u201cAh, I don&#8217;t smell anything. No, but I&#8217;ve installed the wastewater drain <strong>like we always do<\/strong>.\u201d <\/li>\n<li>\u201cThat&#8217;s the problem with you Amonbofis, <strong>you always do what we do<\/strong>.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cYes, well, <strong>we&#8217;ve always done it this way<\/strong>&#8230;\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cA good decision is one that is <em>adapted<\/em> and <em>re-thought<\/em>. Not a thousand times, just <em>twice<\/em>.\u201d <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Believing in black swans<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The \u201cBlack Swan\u201d decision-making model is based on the high number of <strong>cognitive biases<\/strong> in human beings. The Lebanese-American author Nassim Nicholas Taleb theorized this \u201cBlack Swan\u201d tendency, explaining that \u201c(&#8230;) since we only know about white swans, we cannot consider the existence of black swans\u201d. Indeed, if you only come across and observe white swans, you&#8217;ll quickly come to <strong>the mistaken conclusion<\/strong> that all swans are white. And this is what Europeans believed before observing and documenting Australian black swans from the <sup>18th<\/sup> century onwards. To counter this belief, it would be necessary to observe and document all the swans on Earth before coming to a conclusion about their colors. This is impossible to do, and quickly leads to the <strong>erroneous conclusion<\/strong> that all swans are white.     <\/p>\n<p>And if we apply this to decision-making methods? We have to be careful not to <strong>jump to conclusions<\/strong>, based on data that seems complete but is in fact fragmentary. The ability to <strong>question the obvious<\/strong> remains crucial.  <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>In a nutshell.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Making the right decision rests on three pillars:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Set yourself clear, universal rules,<\/li>\n<li>Dare to change your angle of analysis,<\/li>\n<li>Question the obvious.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote><p>Above all,<strong> trust yourself!<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Sources :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>J\u00e9z\u00e9quel, M. (2020, August 17). We&#8217;ve read for you&#8230; The book of decisions. Retrieved September 04, 2020, from https:\/\/www.revuegestion.ca\/on-a-lu-pour-vous-le-livre-des-decisions   <\/li>\n<li>Web page, W. (2020, August 29). Black swan theory. Retrieved September 04, 2020, from https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Th\u00e9orie_du_cygne_noir  <\/li>\n<li>Web page, W. (2020, February 01). What is cognitive bias? Definition of cognitive bias. Retrieved September 04, 2020, from https:\/\/www.usabilis.com\/definition-biais-cognitifs\/   <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>** <em>Use of the masculine singular to lighten the text.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weighing up the pros and cons, weighing up each argument, seeking external advice and expertise&#8230; it&#8217;s long and tedious. Today, we focus on three decision-making models to help you quickly set limits and objectives, and perform over the long term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[126],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to make the right decisions? Three models tested and approved! 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